The First, Second, Third Punic Wars Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The First, Second, Third Punic Wars - Essay Example The outcome of the wars established the enduring legacy of the Roman Empire as one of the greatest in the whole of history. The influence of the Punic Wars on Western Civilization The Punic Wars were important also for their influence on subsequent diplomatic and military strategies. Many theories pertaining to political and military strategy were conceived and codified during these three wars. These theories continued to be perused by later generations of leaders. The Punic Wars were also important for their impact on cultural and philosophical development in Europe. Since the Western Mediterranean region was such a cultural and intellectual melting pot, gaining control of it conferred prestige on the Roman Empire. The leaders of the Empire would in turn encourage the growth of arts and culture. It is no coincidence that the rise of the Roman Empire through victories in the Punic Wars happened during the Hellenistic era. It is as if the explosion of art, literature, philosophy, thea tre, architecture, music and science in Hellenistic Greece is a response to the ascendency of the Roman Empire through the Punic Wars. First Punic War: Winner, Loser, Gains and Losses At the beginning of the First Punic War, Rome only possessed a modest navy. On the other hand, Carthage held the most competent and experienced navy in the region. Since Rome can access Sicily only through its navy, Carthage was able to quell its initial forays. Though set back by these early defeats, the Roman military strategists rose to the occasion and started building a substantial fleet of ships to neutralize Carthaginian naval power. This enterprise proved to be a success and eventually Sicily and other contested territories was conceded by Carthage to Rome. The outcome of the First Punic War established Rome as a considerable imperial power in the Mediterranean region. As part of the reparations, Rome acquired a fair share of Carthage’s wealth, so much so that an indignant Carthaginian l eadership would carry its scars into the future. These hurt pride and perceived injustice would be the backdrop for further conflicts between the two empires. Rome and Carthage made several trade pacts after the war and they even agreed to an alliance to suppress King Pyrrhus of Epirus. As part of the war indemnity, Carthage was asked to release thousands of Roman prisoners of war. Large amounts of silver were also included as reparation. But Carthage’s economy and military were so devastated by the war that it was unable to fulfil its post-war pacts. This led to resentment from Rome and made further wars inevitable. Second Punic War: Winner, Loser, Gains and Losses The Second Punic War followed a similar pattern to that of the first. Although Carthage under the imaginative command of Hannibal made impressive forays into Roman held territory, the superior organization and adaptability of Roman forces eventually proved decisive. Hannibal’s crossing of Alps with an Eleph ant-ridden battalion was an impressive feat. Hannibal was able to dominate the country outside Rome on the back of his superior infantry. But the crucial fortress of Rome the city was never to be breached. Acting against Hannibal’s progress was the resolute support Rome received from its allies. Hence Carthage was once again defeated by the superior diplomacy, combat tactics and foresight of Roman leadership. But unlike the First Punic Wa

Understanding the marketplace Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Understanding the marketplace - Essay Example This results from the fact that the business can conduct a survey and hence research on market trends and the techniques employed by other producers and therefore improve on their products. Statistics from a global perspective are effective when making vital decisions on production (Harrington, 2007). This is mainly because since standardized products are popular, it is easy for the producers to make an assessment on best practices that can help improve their production. This methodology is usually effective for organizations whose performance is deteriorating, as standardization helps formulate and implement effective strategies. It should also be noted that not all organizations that sell standardized products succeed. In as much as standardization may be favorable due to many reasons, other factors such as promoting and setting at prices may make it unfavorable (Quelch, & Deshpande, 2004). This prompts local market conditions to take control of standardization. In an argument by Harrington (2007), product decisions are crucial as they determine the success or failure of the business. Surveys show that 50 percent of businesses decline because they do not understand the market demands of their products. On the same note, two-thirds of them succeed by supplying their goods to regions where they are popular. From the statistics, it is advisable to standardize products of global consumption such as medicine and medical implements. Therefore, before a business decides to standardize its products, it should be capable of establishing whether their products into local, international or multinational categories. This will give them hints on whether the products should be groomed for either local or international

Animal testing Essay Example for Free

Animal testing Essay Animal testing is used for many products worldwide. Also animal testing is used for a wide range of things, such as items in houses and medicines. Many places test on animals, such as private facilities, universities, and government laboratories. A big debate in today’s society is whether or not scientist should use animals for testing. Most of the animals die during or after the testing. Typing animal testing on images on the Internet it is most likely that gruesome images of rabbits, mice, cats, and dogs being used as test subjects will appear. Some people believe that animal testing has improved the world and continues to do so. They look, at the good side of what animal testing has done for humans. People want to make sure that the product that they are using is safe and won’t affect them in a negative way. Most people believe that it is okay as long as the animal is put to sleep while being tested on and if the animals feel no pain then it doesn’t matter that they are being tested on. Most people think that since most people eat animals; why not use them for testing, which can help humans. But other people think that there are better ways to conduct these experiments. These people can’t stand the fact that millions of animals die because of testing. Haugen, David Animal Experimentation A lot of animal testing is used for cosmetics. Items such as mascara and shaving cream are common cosmetics. The most used animals for animal testing are rabbits, guinea pigs, and mice or rats. It is important for some people to know that their cosmetics were not used to harm animals. However, other people say that they would rather have their products tested by animals because they would rather be safe and to make sure that they wont be affected by the product in a negative way. Another main reason for animal testing is for medical research. Medical research has helped technology. Scientist, want to make sure that they are testing with the most current technology and at this moment its animals. The study of animals helps scientist understand better. Ways that Animal testing has helped medial research is that it has helped find a cure for breast cancer, leukemia, lung cancer, and many others. Now days it seems not ethical for humans to be tested on, but in the past people in mental hospitals or prisons have been used as â€Å"guinea pigs†. In the past this behavior was acceptable. Humans that are tested subjects these days are able to speak up for themselves where animals are not capable of that. Most people that agree with animal testing have never been forced to do something that they didn’t have a say about and didn’t have rights. Darwin has showed that we share a common lineage with other animals, and a subsequent genetic research has shown the closeness of evolutionary links. This means that we are very similar to animal. Boines, The use of curari in a repository medium in the management of acute poliomyelitis. Most of the animals that are from the streets or animal shelters that are being used as test subjects. Scientists believe that if the animal is going to no use, then it should be used for testing. Some laboratories hire people to drive around to find animals on the street. Most people don’t believe that this is right because that animal could be someone’s lost loving pet. In the past there have been cases of animals being stolen for testing and even trades happening for testing. Jmett, The student roos Animal testing has decreased. The main cause of it decreasing is that people have become more aware of it and what the side effects are to animals. Also a lot of people spend most of their time protesting against it and making other people aware of it. The push of stopping animal testing has affected businesses. For example cosmetic, companies have lost customers because the customers that believe that animal testing isn’t ethical don’t want to buy their pro ducts from a business that test on animals. This has pushed many large cosmetic companies to quit animal testing, but some of them don’t tell the complete truth. People have found that companies that say they are â€Å"animal testing free† usually have other companies test their products on animals for them. They can get away with having the other company willing to test for them because the companies that sell â€Å"animal tested free† products can get away with double or tripling the actual value because they know that customers want to see the words of animal tested free and then the company will share the profit with the other company that tested the products on the animals for them. n.p, A Critical Evaluation of Animal Research People read articles and the description of how they actually test the animal and it shocks them and they think that animal testing should be banned forever, but most of these people also don’t realize that animal testing has helped us with our medical research. Most people that have been sick or are close to someone that is seriously ill and animal testing is one of their only hopes for getting better; then they all of a sudden are all for animal testing. A big question is, ‘is animal testing worth it†? Some people say no because more than half of the animals end up dying after testing. And the testing is usually for the humans and their bodies can react different than the animals, so most people believe that testing isn’t even worth it. The other side of the people believes that testing is worth it because even though animals die there is still progress in today’s medical research. The more that animals get tested on the more we come closer to a better society. They believe that scientists need to start with something and that something is testing on animals. Botting, The history of thalidomide. Drug News Perspectives, Evaluation of the potential effects of ingredients added to cigarettes. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 40 There have been multiple cases where animal testing has affected animals differently than it affected the humans. When cigarettes first came out, they tested them by animals to see if they were safe. If they went by just what animal testing showed about cigarettes, it would be wrong. For animals to inhale cigarette smoke is okay and it won’t harm them, where it would harm humans. Cigarettes also didn’t cause cancer in animals, which they actually do in humans. This shows that cancer is different for animals and humans. Another example is the drug Thalidomide, which was to help prevent nausea and morning sickness for pregnant mothers. Thalidomide was tested on many animals and all of the animals showed the drug as being safe and okay. The drug ended up being unsafe, which caused babies to be born with deformities. The main deformity from this drug caused â€Å"flipper limbs†. This was when the legs and arms were really short and were joined at the hip and shoulder joints. The reason that all of the animals showed this drug to be safe was because the drug was not correctly tested. To be correctly tested they would have had to test the drug on pregnant animals to show accurate results, which shows another way that animal testing isn’t always effective and doesn’t always show the most accurate results. This is just two out of countless documents where animal testing failed to work. All the products were initially tested on animals and were thought to be safe for humans, but when given to humans, major consequences took place leading to deaths and deformities. Animal testing was disproven to be accurate in these tests. This leads people to believe that animal testing is not safe and that people shouldn’t always trust that animal testing would be accurate. Allanou, Public availability of data on EU high production volume chemicals. Some people believe that animal testing has slowed the process of medicine. They believe this because they think that scientists waste time by testing on the animals. They could waste time because some animals react diffe rent then humans and most animals end up dying. Others believe that it is worth the time and that great things can come out of animal testing, which is very true. Humans should be very thankful for what scientist have accomplished. Because of animal testing, scientists have been able to create medicines, vaccines, and insulin that can cure humans. Animal testing has also helped physicians. Animal testing has helped them by making it more accurate for them to perform surgeries, such as heart and lung surgeries. Testing has allowed doctors and scientists save many lives. â€Å"Animal research has played a vital rise in virtually every major medical advance of the last century – for both human and veterinary health. From antibiotics to blood transfusions, from dialysis to organ transplantation, from vaccinations to chemotherapy, bypass surgery and join replacement, practically every present day protocol for the prevention, treatment, cure and control of disease, pain and suffer ing is based on knowledge attained through research with lab animals.† The Foundation for Biomedical Research. This makes people believe that if animal testing were to slow down then advancements in modern medicine would significantly slow down. There are about 450 ways to replace animal testing. For some reason many people believe that animal testing is the only option, but that its wrong. The reason we haven’t completely stopped testing on animals is because it would cost a lot of money to replace it, but in the long run it would probably save us money. Also, animals are easier to obtain in labs because scientist are so used to working with them. It’s easy to keep their day-to-day habits instead of changing their whole research and starting over. Also people see that animals die everyday from being tested and they couldn’t imagine seeing humans die occasionally from being experimented with. The rate that society is going, animal testing will always happen, but as time goes by it will be improved and become more humane. Some people believe that animals do not feel pain. Scientists assume though that they do feel pain. An animal has a vertebra back bone just like humans, which leads scientist to believe that they have the same nerves as us. This means that the animals might feel the same or similar to what we feel. Some scientists do believe that if the animal is in intense shock from the testing it won’t feel any pain. This information makes people aware of the effects of animal testing. Some people argue and say that instead of testing on animals test on humans because animals have no say in what happens to them as where humans have a voice and can speak up for themselves. The other side of the argument is that a human’s life is more valuable than an animal’s. Humans are more advanced than an animal, which leads people to feel more compassionate about the human.Crawford The schizophrenic career of a â€Å"monster drug† Some people view animals as equals to humans. The common thing that most people think is that humans are on a higher level than animals because humans have control over their lives and more characteristics, such as humans are more intelligent, creative, aware, technologically advanced, able to understand and speak an language, and able to make moral choices. These rights are what lead people to believe that humans are higher than animals, but the other side of the argument can prove this wrong in their own way. The other side of the argument says that since animals can feel pain they are the same equally as humans. People don’t think that humans and animals should be separated into different groups because they both suffer and can both die. People also point out that not all humans are capable of having all the characteristics that a normal human would have, such as infants or handicapped humans. These people that have less characteristics sometimes might even have less than an animal so an animal would be higher on power. Also since infants don’t have high levels of characteristics many Americans believe that they should be given equal power, which is the same power as a grown adult. They think this is right because their parents value them. But then that doesn’t work for pets if a human values them. This is very inconsistent it shows that life isn’t fair at times. But to be fair everything that is valued by an adult should have rights not just one half. One of the biggest issues that people use to defend animal testing is that the animals are going to die eventually anyway. They say that in nature animals would end up killing each other or dying of natural causes. This is very true, but the other side can argue and say that the way the animals are getting tested on is not â€Å"natural†. The animals end up dying, but a painful death that wasn’t planned to happen. Some humans torture other humans without their consent; such as rape and that it is looked down upon and is not acceptable in our society. Also people for animal testing say humans hunt the animals and kill them to eat, which is true. The other side states that it’s not the same because hunting is for a benefit to survive. They understand that animal testing could be for our benefit for example it can be good for medical research. Even though it can be beneficial, it still is different than hunting because animal testing can be a painful process for the animal and not every company uses it for benefits. LyonTobacco smoke and involuntary smoking, monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risks to humans. International Agency for Research on Cancer Most people are unaware that animal testing is actually beneficial to animals themselves. Animals need to have the best nutrient and if anyone has an animal as a pet more than likely the animal isn’t going to go out and hunt for its food in the wild, which would make sure it got all of its necessary nutrition. So to make sure the pet has the best nutrition it has to get all of it in its dog food that people buy at the store for them. To make sure all of the right nutrients is in the dog food and won’t harm the animal scientists have to test the product on animals to get the best result. Scientists have also used animals for testing on worms, which is a medical problem for animals and have come up with a result that helps pet’s lives. Most people agree that this is right because it is actually benefiting the animals and their lives weren’t just a waste. I believe that animal testing isn’t ethical. I am an animal lover, but it’s not just that. I disagree in what takes place in the labs. I believe that humans and animals are equally on the same level. So when you see an animal cramped up in a tight, small cage think to yourself what if they were one of your friends or a family member? These animals never get affection so I imagine what life would be like growing up as a child with no one there to support me or lead the way for me. Animal testing has been around for years and people are just now realizing that it is harmful. I also don’t believe that animal testing is accurate. Rabbit’s eyes are different than ours. Rabbits feel more pain in their eyes than humans and the pain effects them longer and it takes a long time for the substance that we put in their eyes to go away. A rabbit’s eye is ten times more reactant to hydraulic solution than our eyes. After the rabbits are tested on scientists wait 14 days until they clean the solution out of their eyes. Whenever I’m in the shower and I get shampoo in my eyes I make sure that I clean them out right away, which is normal they shouldn’t have to have solution sitting in their eyes for two weeks when us humans cant even stand it for a minute. The rabbits are extremely affected by this test. The chemical causes swollen eyes, irritated and cloudy eyes, and inflamed skin around the eyes. Also they might endure ulcers, bleeding, or blindness. Once the test are finished the rabbits die. I believe most cosmetic companies are frauds. They say they are doing animal testing to make sure that the products are safe and that they care about their customers. In reality they just perform the animal testing so any customers don’t sue them. Many cosmetic companies say that the law requires them to perform test on animals to make sure their products are safe, but the companies don’t make that a law. So millions of animals suffer and die for selfish companies not wanting to get sued by their customers. I also believe that in the past when new products were first coming out it was okay because we didn’t even know how these products would affect anything. In general I think every cosmetic companies knows what’s right and wrong for their customers. Works Cited Hansen, Allanou R. Public availibility of data on EU high productions volume chemicals. N.p.: Jont Research center, 1009. Print. American Practice. Boines, 3 May 2010. Web. 12 Oct. 2012. James, Botting J. The History of thalomide. N.p.: Food and Chemical Toxicoigy, 1991. Print. Lane, Crawford C. The schizophrenic carrer of a monster drug. N.p.: Pediatrics, 1993. Print.

Literature Review on Volatility

Literature Review on Volatility Literature Review What is Volatility? Volatility is defined as the spread of all likely outcomes of an uncertain variable (Poon, 2005). Statistically, it is often measured as the sample standard deviation (as seen below), but can also be measured by variance. Where rt = return on day t, and ÃŽÂ ¼ = average return over the T-day period. The common misconception is to equate volatility to risk. However, whilst volatility is related to risk, it is not the same. Risk represents an undesirable outcome, whilst volatility is a measure for uncertainty that could arise from a positive outcome. Furthermore, volatility as a measure for the spread of a distribution contains no information on the shape, this represents another reason for volatility being an imperfect measure for risk. The sole exception to this being a normal distribution or lognormal distribution where mean and standard deviation are appropriate statistics for the whole distribution (Poon, 2005). In dealing with volatility as a subject matter in financial markets, the focus is on the spread of asset returns. High volatility is generally undesirable as it indicates security values are unreliable and capital markets arent functioning efficiently (Poon, 2005; Figlewski, 1997). Financial market volatility has been the subject of much research and the number of studies continues to rise since Poon and Granger (2003)s original survey first identified 93 papers in the field. A whole host of drivers for volatility have been explored (including political events, macroeconomic factors and investors behavior) in an attempt to better capture volatility and decrease risk (Poon, 2005). This study will add to that list, hoping to contribute something novel to the field by scrutinizing the appropriateness of different volatility models for different country indexes. The Importance of Volatility Forecasting Investment strategies, Portfolio Optimization and Asset Valuation Volatility when taken as uncertainty transforms into an important component in a wide range of financial applications including Investment strategies for trading or hedging, Portfolio optimization and Asset price valuation. The Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952), Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe, 1964) and Sharpe ratio (Sharpe 1966) signify three cornerstones for optimal decision-making and measurement of performance, advocating a focus on the risk-return interrelationship with volatility taken as a risk proxy. With Investors and portfolio managers having limits as to the risk they can bear, accurate forecasts of the volatility of asset prices for long-term horizons is necessary to reliably assess investment risk. Such forecasts allow investors to be better informed and hold stocks for longer rather than constantly reallocating their portfolio in reaction to movements in prices; an often expensive exercise in general (Poon and Granger, 2003). In terms of st ock price valuation French, et al. (1987) analyse NYSE common stocks for the period of 1928-1984 and find expected market risk premium to be positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns, which is further strengthened by the indirect relationship between stock market returns and the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. Derivatives pricing Volatility is a key element in Modern option pricing theory that enables estimation of the fair value of options and other derivative instruments. According to Poon and Granger (2003) the trading volume of derivative securities had quadrupled in the recent years leading up to their research and since then this growth has accelerated with the global derivatives market now estimated to be around $544 Trillion excluding credit default swaps and commodity contracts (BIS, 2017). As one of five input variables (including Stock Price, Strike price, time to maturity and risk-free interest rate), expected volatility over the options life in the Black-Scholes model theorized by Black and Scholes (1973) is crucially also the only variable that is not directly observable and must be forecast (Figlewski, 1997). Implied volatility and realized volatility can be computed by referencing observed market prices for options and historical data. Whilst the former is attractive for requiring little input data and delivering excellent results when analysed in some empirical studies compared to time series models utilizing just historical information, it is deficient by not having a firm statistical basis and different strike prices yielding different implied volatilities creating confusion over which implied volatility to use (Tse, 1991; Poon, 2005). Lengthening maturities of derivative instruments also weakens the assumption that volatility realized in the recent past can be used as a fairly reliable proxy for volatility in the near future. (Figlewski, 1997). With recent developments, derivatives written on volatility can now also be purchased whereby volatility represents the underlying asset, thus further necessitating volatility forecasting practices (Poon and Granger, 2003). Financial Risk Management Volatility forecasting plays a significant role in Financial Risk Management of the finance and banking industries. The practice aids in estimation of value-at-risk (VaR), a measure introduced by the Basel Committee in 1996 through an amendment to the Basel Accords (an international standard for minimum capital requirement among international banks to safeguard against various risks). Whilst many risks are examined within, volatility forecasting is most relevant for Market risk and VaR. However, calculating VaR is necessary only if banks choose to adopt its own internal proprietary model for calculating market risk related capital requirement. By choosing to do so, there is greater flexibility for banks in specifying model parameters but with an attached condition of regular backtesting of the internal model. Apart from banks, other financial institutions may also use VaR voluntarily for internal risk management purposes. (Poon and Granger 2003; Poon 2005) Christoffersen and Diebold (2000) do however contend the limits of relevance of Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management, arguing that for reliable forecastablity much depends on whether the horizon of interest is of a short term or long-term nature (taken to be more than 10 or 20 days) with the practice deemed more relevant for the former than the latter due to the limitations in forecastability. Policymaking Financial market volatility can have wide-reaching consequences on economies. As an example, large recessions create ambiguity and hinder public confidence. To counter such negative impacts and disruptions, policy makers utilize market estimates of volatility as a means for identifying the vulnerability of financial markets, equipping them with more reliable and complete information with which to respond with appropriate policies. (Poon and Granger, 2003) The Federal Reserve of the United States is one such entity that incorporates volatility of various financial instruments into its monetary policy decision-making (Nasar, 1991). Bernanke and Gertler (2000) explore the degree to which implications of asset price volatility impact monetary policy decision-making. A side-by-side comparison of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy is the basis of the study. The researchers find that inflation-targeting is desirable, however, monetary policy decisions based on changes in asset prices should only be made to the extent that such changes help to forecast inflationary or deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Bomfim (2003) investigates the relationship between monetary policy and stock market volatility from the other perspective. Interest rate policy decisions that carry an element of surprise appear to increase short run, stock market volatility significantly with positive surprises also having a greater effect than negative surprises. Empirical stylized facts of asset returns and volatility Any attempt to model volatility appropriately must be done with an understanding of the common, recurring set of properties identified from numerous empirical studies carried out across financial instruments, markets and time periods. Contrary to the event-based theory in which it is hypothesized different assets respond differently to different economic and political events, empirical studies show that different assets do in fact share some generalizable, qualitative statistical properties. Volatility models should thus seek to capture these features of asset returns and volatility so as to enhance the forecasting process; herein lays the challenge. (Cont, 2001; Bollerslev et al 1994) Presented are some of these stylized facts, along with their corresponding empirical studies that have contributed to the evolving literature aimed at improving volatility-forecasting practices and which this study will also look to capture. Return Distributions Stock Market returns are not normally distributed and it is therefore an unsuitable distribution for modeling returns according to Mandelbrot (1963) and Fama (1965). Returns are approximately symmetrical but can display negative skewness and significantly have leptokurtic features (excess kurtosis with heavier tails and taller, narrower peaks than found in a normal distribution) that see large moves occur with greater frequency than under normal distributions (Sinclair, 2013). Cont (2001) asserts that these large moves in the form of gains and losses are asymmetric by nature with the scale of downward movements in stock index values dwarfing upward movements. He further argues that the introduction of GARCH-type models to counter the effects of volatility clustering can reduce the heaviness of tails in the residual time series to some small extent. However, as GARCH models can at times struggle to fully incorporate heavy-tail features of returns, this has necessitated the use of alte rnative distributions such as the students t-distribution employed in Bollerslev (1987). Alberg et al (2008) employ a skewed version of this distribution to various models with the EGARCH model delivering the best performance in forecasting the volatility of Tel Aviv stock indices. Cont (2001) does however also highlight an important consideration with the notion of aggregational gaussianity that as one increases time scale (t) for calculation of returns, the distribution of returns seems more normally distributed in appearance. Leverage effect/Asymmetric volatility In most markets, volatility and returns are negatively correlated (Cont, 2001). First elucidated by Black (1976) and particularly prevalent for stock indices, Volatility will tend to increase when stock price declines. The justification for this is because a decline in equity stock price will increase a companys debt-to-equity ratio and consequently its risk and volatility (Figlewski and Wang, 2000; Engle and Patton, 2001). Importantly, this relationship is asymmetric, with negative returns having a more marked effect on volatility than positive returns as documented by Christie (1982) and Schwert, (1989). However they also argue that the leverage effect is not enough on its own to explain all of the change in volatility with Christie (1982) incorporating interest rate as another element that has a partial effect. Hence, whilst, ARCH (Engle, 1982) and GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986) models do well to account for volatility clustering and leptokurtosis, their symmetric distribution fails to account for the leverage effect. In response to this, various asymmetric modifications of GARCH have been developed, the most significant of these being Exponential GARCH (EGARCH; Nelson, 1991) and GJR (Glosten et al, 1993). Other models like GARCH-in-Mean have also endeavored to capture the leverage effect along with the risk premium effect, another concept that has been theorized to contribute to volatility asymmetry by studies such as Schwert (1989) (Engle and Patton, 2001). Volatility Distribution The distribution of volatility is taken to be approximately log-normal. Various studies such as Andersen et al (2001) have postulated this. More significantly than the actual distribution is the high positive skewness indicating volatility spends longer in lower states than higher states. (Sinclair, 2013) Volatility-Volume correlation All measures of volatility and trading volume are highly positively correlated (Cont, 2001). Lee and Rui (2002) show this relationship to be foundationally robust, however what is more complex is determining the causality between the two. Strong arguments can be made either way. As an example, Brooks (1998) utilizes linear and non-linear Granger causality tests and finds the relationship to be stronger from volatility to volume than the converse. He concludes by highlighting that for forecasting accuracy, predicting volume using volatility is more productive than forecasting stock index volume and using such forecasts in trading. According to Gallant et al (1992) this relationship is also closely linked with the leverage effect and incorporating lagged volume weakens the effect considerably. Non-Constant Volatility Volatility is not constant. The changing nature of volatility occurs in a particular manner; Merton (1980) was critical of researchers who failed to incorporate this feature in their models. Firstly volatility is mean reverting. Indeed LeBaron (1992) found a strong negative relationship between volatility and autocorrelation for stock indices in the United States. Secondly, Volatility clusters. This is a phenomenon first noted by Mandelbrot (1963) that allows a good estimation of future volatility based on current volatility. Other studies such as Chou (1988) have also empirically shown the existence of clustering. Mandelbrot (1963) wrote, large changes tend to be followed by large changes of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes. In other words, a turbulent day of trading usually comes after another turbulent trading day, whilst a calm period will usually be followed by another calm period. Importantly, the phenomenon is not exclusive to the underlying product and can be seen in stock indices, commodities and currencies. It also tends to be more pronounced in developed than emerging markets. (Taylor, 2008; Sinclair, 2013) Engle and Patton (2001) argue that volatility clustering indicates volatility goes through phases whereby periods of high volatility eventually give way to more normal volatility with the contrary also holding. Engles (1982) landmark paper incorporated these features of volatility persistence using his ARCH model, whereby time varying, non-constant volatility that persists in high or low states is taken account of.

Catcher in the Rye Essay: Holden and the Complexity of Adult Life

Holden and the Complexity of Adult Life What was wrong with Holden, the main character in The Catcher in the Rye, by J.D.Salinger, was his moral revulsion against anything that was ugly, evil, cruel, or what he called "phoney" and his acute responsiveness to beauty and innocence, especially the innocence of the very young, in whom he saw reflected his own lost childhood.   There is something wrong or lacking in the novels of despair and frustration of many writers. The sour note of bitterness and the recurring theme of sadism have become almost a convention, never thoroughly explained by the author's dependence on a psychoanalytical interpretation of a major character. The boys who are spoiled or turned into budding homosexuals by their mothers and a loveless home life are as familiar to us today as stalwart and dependable young heroes such as John Wayne were to an earlier generation. We have accepted this interpretation of the restlessness and bewilderment of our young men and boys because no one had anything better to offer. It is tragic to hear the anguished cry of parents: "What have we done to harm him? Why doesn't he care about anything? He is a bright boy, but why does he fail to pass his examinations? Why won't he talk to us?" A remarkable and absorbing novel, J. D. Salinger's "The Catcher in the Rye," may serve to calm the apprehensions of fathers and mothers about their own responsibilities, though it doesn't attempt to explain why all boys who dismay their elders have failed to pass successfully the barrier between childhood and young manhood. It is profoundly moving and a disturbing book, but it is not hopeless. Holden Caulfield, sixteen years old and six foot two inches in hei... ...Boy, I was shaking like a madman." The Catcher in the Rye is not all horror of this sort. There is a wry humor in this sixteen-year-old's trying to live up to his height, to drink with men, to understand mature sex and why he is still a virgin at his age. His affection for children is spontaneous and delightful. There are few little girls in modern fiction as charming and lovable as his little sister, Phoebe. Altogether this is a book to be read thoughtfully and more than once. It is about an unusually sensitive and intelligent boy; but, then, are not all boys unusual and worthy of understanding? If they are bewildered at the complexity of modern life, unsure of themselves, shocked by the spectacle of perversity and evil around them - are not adults equally shocked by the knowledge that even children cannot escape this contact and awareness?

John Steinbeck: Experiencing the Dust Bowl Essay -- essays research pa

The 1930’s were a decade of great change politically, economically, and socially. The Great Depression and the Dust Bowl wore raw the nerves of the people, and our true strength was shown. From it arose John Steinbeck, a storyteller of the Okies and their hardships. His books, especially The Grapes of Wrath, are reflections of what really went on in the 1930’s. John Steinbeck did not write about what he had previously read, he instead wrote what he experienced through his travels with the migrant workers. â€Å"His method was not to present himself notebook in hand and interview people. Instead he worked and traveled with the migrants as one of them, living as they did and arousing no suspicion from employers militantly alert against â€Å"agitators† of any kind.† (Lisca 14) John Steinbeck’s The Grapes of Wrath was derived from his personal experiences and his journeys with the migrant workers. John Steinbeck was born on February 27, 1902 in the town of Salinas, California. Salinas was an agricultural trading center with ties to the farms and ranches in the area. Steinbeck’s father, John Steinbeck Sr., was in the flour-milling business and through it supported his family of three daughters and one son. Steinbeck was a good student and a great writer even at an early age; he wrote stories for his high school paper. (Lisca 1-4) The experiences that were most influential to Steinbeck were not at school, but instead came from his home and the countryside. He read his mother’s books, which included the titles of Crime and Punishment, Paradise Lost and The Return of the Native. Another major influence was the countryside of California that surrounded him all his childhood. He went with Good 2 his family to his mother’s family ranch, where Steinbeck was surrounded by nature, and these kinds of trips led him to write such books as â€Å"East of Eden† and â€Å"The Red Pony†. (Lisca 3-5) Later in life, Steinbeck wrote a book called â€Å"In Dubious Battle†, which made him known as sympathetic to the labor conditions in California. Because of this, Steinbeck accepted assignments to write articles about the migrants working in California. Steinbeck had been aware of the labor problems in his state of California, but for these articles he wanted to experience it firsthand. For inspiration for his articles, and also what would turn out to be the inspiration for â€Å"Grapes of Wrath†, he visited t... ...out I’ve tried to make the reader participate in the actuality, what he takes from it will be scaled entirely on his own depth or hollowness. There are five layers in this book, a reader will find as many as he can and he won’t find more than he has in himself. (DeMott xiii).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  John Steinbeck was not observing these people’s plight, but was instead living and feeling it. Steinbeck could have only been considered an observer in that he did not have to experience it. Throughout his experiences living and working with the migrants he not only became interested or aware of the cause, but he became attached to the cause and it became a part of him. Good 5 Works Cited DeMott, Robert. Introduction. The Grapes of Wrath. By John Steinbeck. New York: Penguin Books, 1939. Lisca, Peter. John Steinbeck: Nature and Myth. New York: Thomas Y. Cromwell Company, 1978. Steinbeck, Elaine, and Robert Wallsten. Steinbeck: A Life in Letters. New York; Penguin Books, 1989 Steinbeck, John. The Grapes of Wrath. 20th century ed. New York: Penguin Books, 1939. Steinbeck, John. Working Days: The Journals of Grapes of Wrath. Ed. Robert DeMott. New York: Penguin Books, 1989.

Oedipus and Creon: Leaders of Thebes Essay

In the plays Oedipus the King and Antigone Sophocles portrays two characters, Oedipus and Creon, as rulers of Thebes. After the murder of Laius, former King of Thebes, Oedipus became leader when he successfully solved the riddle of the Sphinx. Some time later, Creon became King of Thebes as the result of his nephews deaths. â€Å"Oedipus is a good ruler in spite of his defects. Creon is a bad ruler in spite of his virtues.† This essay will discuss Oedipus and Creon as rulers of Thebes. In the eyes of the townspeople, Oedipus is seen as a good leader. He demonstrates the qualities any good leader possesses. When Oedipus learned of the plague that had spread through the town he immediately took action before the town confronted him with their fears. Upon meeting with the town, he notified them of his actions and his understanding of their concerns regarding the outcome of Thebes. Oedipus says, â€Å"You can trust me. I am ready to help, I’ll do anything. I would be blind to misery not to pity my people kneeling at my feet† (Sophocles 159). We see that Oedipus is sympathetic to their needs and concerns and dependable as he had already sent his brother-in-law to gain information from the oracle Upon Creon’s return from the oracle, Oedipus demonstrates his honesty, truthfulness, and determination as leader. Creon states, â€Å"If you want my report in the presence of these people†¦I’m ready now, or we might go inside† (Sophocles 163). Oedipus responds by asking Creon to report right then and there suggesting that he has nothing to hide and only truth to share with Thebes. The news from the oracle suggested that the only way to end the plague was to remove the source of Laius’s death, either by banishment or murder. Oedipus immediately seeks out to uncover the murderer of the former king. These qualities are those admired in a leader, like Oedipus, but hard to find in Creon. Creon, unlike Oedipus, is seen as a poor leader of the town, Thebes. The qualities with which he rules are unlikable. Creon immediately instills a sense of fear as he acknowledges the absolute power he possesses in his initial speech as ruler of Thebes. â€Å"Whoever refuses to adopt the soundest policies but fearing someone, keeps his lips locked tight, he’s utterly worthless. And whoever places a friend above the good of his own country, he  is nothing† (Sophocles 67). Furthermore, Creon issues a decree to his people that anyone who provides Polynices with a proper burial will face death. By enforcing the decree, Creon lacks sympathy for the beliefs of his town and his blood relatives, Antigone and Ismene. When the sentry enters with a message for the King we learn that Creon’s rule focuses on threats and violence. The sentry hesitates to relay this message to Creon fearing that he would react harshly. Creon then demands that the sentry tell all that he knows. The sentry informs Creon that someone has defied the decree and given Polynices proper burial. Creon irrationally accuses the sentry; although he has spoken several times that he is not to blame. The king threatens the sentry saying, â€Å"Well now, you just be clever about your judgments – if you fail to produce the criminals for me, you’ll swear your dirty money brought you pain† (Sophocles 75). Terrified by the King’s word, the sentry quickly leaves to keep watch of Polynices and later returns with news that Antigone is the culprit. We find that Oedipus is a good leader because he is honest, sympathetic, dependable and determined. On the other hand, Creon fails to sympathize with the citizen. The fear and violence of his absolute power became detrimental to his leadership. Despite these differences between Oedipus and Creon, the leaders did share some qualities that influenced the way they ruled. Oedipus and Creon both ruled with pride. Each individual was proud of their actions and the way they lead the people of Thebes. At times they were so proud that they failed to believe what was being told to them. Tiresias proclaims to Oedipus, â€Å"You are the curse, the corruption of the land† (Sophocles 179). Oedipus refuted the truth, â€Å"Aren’t you appalled to start up such a story? You think you can get away with this?† (Sophocles 179) Tiresias warned Oedipus of his family curse and the he was the cause of the plague, but he failed to see this. Similarly, Creon was warned by Tiresias in Antigone of the trouble that was to result from his injustice. â€Å"If he tried to make amends, however low he’s fallen, and stops his bullnecked ways. Stubbornness brands you for stupidity-pride is a crime† (Sophocles 112). Creon failed to accept the information told to him by Tiresias,  instead his pride prevailed until he admitted his wrongdoings at the end of the play, at which it was too late. The town of Thebes was also ruled by both with stubbornness. Once they had an idea set in their minds nothing could change it. Each had a firm belief in what they thought. Creon sentenced Antigone to death, since she was the individual who gave her brother, Polynices, a proper burial. Despite warnings from the town and Tiresias, Creon carried out the sentencing of his niece by sealing her in a cave. His stubborn character led to defiance of the Gods, which led to his downfall as King of Thebes. In Oedipus the King, Oedipus goal was to save his people from the plague by removing the murderer, who was present in the town. Oedipus was stubborn and refused to see the clues which revealed the source of the plague. Eventually, Oedipus overcame his stubbornness and accepted the truth that he was indeed the source of the plague by murdering his father and marrying his mother. Oedipus, being a good leader, remained true to his word and banished himself from Thebes. In conclusion, Sophocles portrays two rulers of Thebes in his plays Oedipus the King and Antigone. Oedipus and Creon share similarities and differences that characterize them as leaders of Thebes. Oedipus is seen as a good ruler due to the fact that he possesses the qualities the town seeks in a leader. Creon is deemed a bad ruler. He places himself above the state, people, and gods therefore being a feared and intimidating leader. Works Cited Sophocles. The Three Theban Plays: Antigone, Oedipus the King, Oedipus at Colonus. New York: Penguin Books, 1984. Works ConsultedMcManus, Barbara. â€Å"Background for Antigone.† CLS 267 Topic Page. 1999. The College ofNew Rochelle. 20 April 2005 Mitchell-Boyask, Robin. â€Å"Study Guide for Sophocles’ Oedipus the King.† Department ofClassics. 2002. Temple University. 22 April 2005